This paper evaluates the contribution of the road transport sector, in a typical small developing country, to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. An inventory of transport emissions, using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change methodology, is presented for the base year 1997. The Motor Vehicle Emission Inventory computer based model, with inputs adjusted to the fleet and conditions at hand, is used to predict contributions of different classes of vehicles and to forecast the corresponding emissions for the year 2020. Emissions reduction and the sensitivity to changes in factors such as fleet age, fleet technology, average speed and travel volume are assessed. Scenarios are developed to explore the feasibility and benefits of two different mitigation approaches. The first approach stresses the reduction potential of measures related to the fleet age and new technology application. The second addresses the effectiveness of transport planning and demand reduction in mitigating emissions. The air quality impact of these scenarios is presented. The results bring to light the essence of the problem that technical improvements alone, in the existing fleet, will not be able to offset impacts due to the growth in future travel demand. Policy settings to counterbalance the increase in emissions are investigated in that context. (Author/publisher).
Abstract