Transportsektorns CO2-utsläpp : prognoser och styrmöjligheter via CO2-avgifter = CO2 emissions by the transport sector : forecast and control prospects via CO2 pricing.

The purpose of the study is to throw some light on the development of carbon dioxide emissions from the transport sector in Sweden, with and without the use of special policy measures to limit the emissions of carbon dioxide. The study consists of two main parts. In the first part, future development of traffic and transport in Sweden is elaborated for two macroeconomic scenarios, namely "moderate growth" and "high growth". The two associated scenarios for transport sector development constitute two reference scenarios, which for all practical purposes are based on the same background data, assumptions and models as those used as a basis for the national Swedish infrastructure plan for the period 1994-2003. In the second part, an attempt is made to calculate the price levels and price level changes for transport sector fuels which would suffice to attain certain predefined carbon dioxide emission objectives, primarily for the years 2000 and 2005. Long-term elasticities for transport demand, as well as elasticities for long term specific fuel consumption, were used for the calculations. The elasticities are based on Swedish and international studies. (A). For the English edition of this report see C 7986 S (IRRD 871497).