Transport is a significant contributor to both local and global environmental decay. Given the current trend towards more mobility, the transport impact on the environment is likely to increase. In this paper, the main technological developments in the transport sector which can be expected within the next two decades are outlined and their implications for the environment are discussed. The product life cycle theory has been used as a framework to consider the technological innovations. It enables to link the development stages of a transport system (introduction, growth, maturity and decline) with the role of technological innovations in these different development phases. The major driving forces (speed, capacity, costs, comfort, image and environment) for innovations within the different modes are observed, from which the main fields of technology change can be derived. Finally, the possibilities of the national government to influence these technology changes to support their policies are discussed. The tools the government can use are: regulations, subsidies, and information. The impact of governmental acting appears to be limited. (A)
Abstract