Most metropolitan areas in developing countries are suffering from severe traffic congestion and resulting air pollution due to lack of public transportation and rapid motorisation. Providing mass transit systems is expected to be the most efficient solution for the problems. Introduction of new transportation modes, however, complicates the demand analysis because data of actual usage of such modes do not exist. Although the stated preference (SP) technique is a powerful tool in such situations, the reliability of elicited preference is unknown. Revealed preference (RP) data are also scarce in developing countries. This study is the first attempt at applying the Ben-Akiva and Morikawa's RP/SP combining technique to urban transportation in developing countries in order to alleviate the data scarcity problem. The technique is applied to the mass rapid transit project in Bangkok. The paper also proposes the framework of urban transportation demand analysis which incorporates the car-ownership model and travel mode choice model.
Abstract