What impact will the ongoing and predicted changes in Europe have on the United States gateways that serve the North Atlantic market? Standard ground transportation modeling and analysis methodology (trip generation, trip distribution, model split, and trip assignment) was used on the 24 United States and 33 European gateways with scheduled service in 1989. Using gross domestic product to predict gateway boardings, the average annual growth rate ranged from 3.3 percent under status quo conditions to 3.5 percent under a high-growth scenario. Using average seats per aircraft and load factor with gatewayboardings resulted in a 4.1 percent average annual growth in operations to 2000 and 2.3 percent from 2000 to 2010. This could affect the air traffic control system. The concluding step used a market share method to distribute the market gateway boardings and operations to the individual gateways, enabling the impacts on the gateways to be quantified along with the overall market impacts. This growth is expected to be largely absorbed by gateways other than New York (Kennedy and Newark), which will see a decline in market share.
Abstract