The UK motor industry is committed to recycling scrap plastic obtained from End-of-Life vehicles, and between now and 2002 the industry body (ACORD) will implement a programme for recovery and recycling. But planning the programme requires a reliable prediction of the future arisings of plastic, which is conditional upon having a good estimate of the materials composition of today's average car. This paper validates a materials forecast made in 1982 of the average family car for the 1990s by comparing it to an actual example. The comparison shows that whilst the forecast was broadly correct it overestimated the quantities of thermosetting plastic at the expense of the commodity plastics: PP, PE and ABS. Furthermore, subsequent use of the forecast to predict the arisings of scrap takes it outside of its original context. Scrap arising from the UK fleet comes from cars of many ages and types, and is poorly represented by a single average car. This paper proposes that a forecast obtained from a model of the fleet average car better represents the variety of cars scrapped. The model incorporates four interrelated factors: design generation, total vehicle weight, types and amounts of plastics, and the structure of the market for cars. The new forecast for the year 2002 shows that the arisings of scrap plastic are about one-third less than expected. (A)
Abstract