Underestimating project costs is well ingrained across the transport infrastructure industry. The authors address a range of issues: the underlying reasons for over-optimistic estimates being given to decision -makers; the extent of the problem; whether variations in estimates are significant or simply random errors; the implications for the development of road infrastructure policy and associated decision-making; and the fundamental question of how to change the current culture of rewarding optimistic estimates. The authors explore the culture in the Main Roads' operating environment and the systems used to program roadworks. They review issues of regions and districts having to compete against each other for funds in a climate of constrained budgets; the processes used to develop estimates; and the tools for managing project scope and risk and justifying project expenditure. The paper draws from international experience and links this to the initiatives undertaken to improve estimating in Main Roads. (Author/publisher) For the covering entry of this conference, please see ITRD abstract no. E208431.
Abstract