As environmental concerns mount alongside increasing auto dependence, research has been devoted to understanding decisions regarding the number of automobiles households own. Results tend to show that aggregate VMT is mediated by auto ownership; auto ownership (a normal good) is a function of income and density. The density effect may be overstated as poorer people tend to live in high density environments. In the current research we use the 2000 U.S. Census to demonstrate the importance of preference and preference formation by studying auto ownership among recent movers. Residents of the nation’s transit-oriented cities who have moved from metropolitan areas own fewer vehicles than their counterparts from non-metropolitan areas. Using Bayesian learning in the analysis, we demonstrate these results are due to learned preferences for levels of car ownership. From this it can be derived that an increase or decrease in automobile ownership is self-reinforcing, or path-dependent, which means, once the “cultural knowledge” of living without cars is lost, it will be difficult to regain. There should be a focus on children to familiarize them early with walking, biking and public transit as an alternative to the car. This familiarity will lead to preferences for fewer cars.
Abstract