This paper discusses various aspects of modal split modelling, and suggests an approach and model form for taking policy decisions on the development of public transport systems in India. Demand for transport in India has grown exponentially, with the trend to urbanisation. In the absence of adequate public transport systems, there has been an explosive growth of private vehicles. There has been no effort to have a comprehensive policy on public transport system management and development, and too little finance has been allocated to public transport. India has had urban transport planning for about 30 years. The paper reviews the following approaches: (1) policy studies and reports; (2) traffic and transport studies; reports; (2) traffic and transport studies; and (3) research studies. Modal split modelling is discussed as a very important phase of the transport planning process. The distribution of households by income groups and trips by purpose are tabulated for seven large Indian cities. Tremendous differences have been observed in the modal share and supply of bus systems, which are tabulated for 16 cities. A two-stage modelling process is required for modelling urban modal share: (1) an accessibility model; and (2) a relationship between accessibility and modal share.
Abstract