Abstract
Peak oil, strong international climate policy, and many other unconventional changes which loom on the horizon may strongly change current vacation travel patterns. What changes in vacation travel behaviour can we expect and how can policy-makers prepare for them? This thesis takes the first steps to answer these questions. It develops and empirically tests advanced portfolio vacation choice models. Insights (substantive and methodological) presented in this thesis can help governments and tourism industries to respond more adequately when the probability on an unconventional change becomes real. (Author/publisher)