Experience with the Scenario Explorer in the past 18 months has shown that this tool has a great potential. Nevertheless, the number of users are still small. One of the possible reasons for this is that the substantive value of the Scenario Explorer prognoses is not sufficiently clear. The objectives of this study are: (1) to remove barriers to use the Scenario Explorer; and (2) to increase the number of users by means of verification. The verification of the Scenario Explorer is designed as a technical verification; a previously determined impulse is given for each input. Each mutation is calculated for each input variable with the Scenario Explorer. An overview is given for each variable for which the input and output is given, deviating from the zero situation. The results are examined and assessed for deviation from the results expected in advance. A list of problems is drawn up during this assessment stage. These problems can be either of a technical or of a substantive nature. (A)
Abstract