The specific problem that this research project addresses is to identify how an agency can include a value of travel time reliability (VTTR) in a benefit-cost analysis (BCA) when making congestion reduction-related project investment decisions. This project builds on the experiences of the Maryland State Highway Administration (SHA) and their on-going efforts to include reliability into their planning and programming processes. In carrying out this project, the research team developed a proposed travel time data-drive methodology that uses local travel time data to develop localized values of the reliability. Because the proposed method is data-driven, it requires access to fine granularity and long-term archived travel time data which is becoming more widely available through third party probe data providers. The methodology is based on Real Options theory and a review of previous attempts to apply real options concepts to the problem of travel time reliability valuation is provided. While the travel time data driven methodology shows significant promise, it does require a rigorous validation of hypotheses underlying the methodological developments as well as validation of application results. Ideas for addressing validation are included in suggested further research. This report shows that SHA’s current use of a Reliability Ratio can be defended through the results of a literature search and the application of the proposed travel-time data driven methodology. The report also shows how SHA currently uses value of travel time reliability in selecting short-term congestion relief projects as well as how the output of the proposed travel time data-driven methodology can be used both in short-term and long-term project prioritization and selection. While this research project focused on SHA as a case study, the information (literature, data-driven methodology, application examples) documented in this report could help agencies looking to incorporate VTTR in their investment decision processes. (Author/publisher)
Abstract