Recently, the Central Planning Bureau (CPB) published new long-term scenarios for the Dutch economy. In the realisation of these scenarios the CPB cooperated with several other research institutes. The new scenarios look at the 25 year period from 1995 to the year 2020. This paper is largely based on the 1997 Netherlands Research Centre (AVV) background report of which the main title is: "Passenger and freight mobility in 2010 and 2020" (In Dutch: "Personen-en goederenmobiliteit in 2010 en 2020"). In the project, a major use was made of a broad spectrum of different types of forecasting models. For the forecasts concerning personal transport, the Forecasting Air pollution by Car Traffic Simulation (FACTS) model and the National Model System (LMS) were used. A forecast for the transport of goods was made using the Transport Economic Model (TEM) II model. Forecasts for the use of heavy goods vehicles were made using ATTACK. In all forecasts a rather modest policy scenario was used. For a number of variables that have determined the growth in personal travel by car in the past, a much more modest development is expected for the future 25 years. Although economic and demographic developments will form an important stimulus for the growth in private car use, this growth is expected to decline. The forecasts show that given the modest policy implementation assumed, the 2010 policy targets for the growth in private car use are not quite met. The policy targets for use of heavy goods vehicles and the congestion on the major trunk road network are not within reach at all.
Abstract