Road safety effects in 2020 of new measures in relation with behavioural influence; Estimate of the effects of 'human oriented' measures in the Strategic Plan for Road Safety. This report is a background document to the Road Safety Outlook 2020 (Wesemann & Weijermars, 2011). This outlook makes a prognosis of the road safety level in the Netherlands for an integral implementation of the present Strategic Plan for Road Safety 2008-2020 (SPV). First a reference prognosis was made: an estimate of the development of the numbers of road casualties if road safety policy from the period 1995-2009 were to be continued. It is likely, however, that the risk will develop differently in the future than it has done according to the extrapolation of the developments until now. This can, for example, be caused by the implementation of ‘new measures’ from the SPV that are expected to have extra effect, but also by ‘current measures’ that may be expected to have less or, rather, more effect on road safety in the future; see the Strategic Plan for Road Safety. The initial reference prognosis is adjusted for this kind of developments in the main report (Wesemann & Weijermars, 2011). The present report contains a choice of five new 'human-oriented' measures in the SPV that are expected to result in an extra reduction in casualties in comparison with the preliminary reference prognosis. These new measures in relation with behavioural influence, e.g. enforcement and education, are discussed in the present report and their effects until 2010 on the numbers of road fatalities and serious road injuries are calculated. A different background document to the Road Safety Outlook 2020 does the same for measures in relation with vehicle safety. The present report defines 'new policy' as policy that, concerning content and/or size or speed of implementation in the period after 2009, differs considerably from policy in the period until 2009. In relation with behavioural influence this is the case for five road safety measures in the SPV: the alcolock, enforcement of drugs in traffic, accompanied driving, the practical examination for moped riders, and the overall measure 'blind spot'. Data has been collected to adjust the reference prognosis for each measure.
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