Road Safety Outlook 2020; Interim report phase 1. In 2008 the Strategic Road Safety Plan 2008-2020 (SPV) was formulated. This plan is the basis of the biannual Action Programmes, among other things. It has been decided that the SPV will be reviewed every four years to assess whether its implementation will meet the targets in 2020 and whether the SPV must possibly be revised. This report is meant as a tool for this review. It deals with prognoses for the number of fatalities and serious road injuries in 2020 with implementation of the SPV; they are defined as reference prognoses. Before drawing up the prognoses, it was studied whether the points of departure of the SPV are still applicable. Modification in the points of departure has been accounted for in the formulation of the prognoses. The prognoses have been drawn up in two stages. In the first place, the development in risk from the past (1995-2009) has been extrapolated to the future (2020) for various groups of casualties. The ‘forecasting model’ developed by SWOV has been used for this purpose. The expected risks are multiplied by mobility or population prognoses derived from the Welfare, Prosperity and Quality of the Living Environment (WLO) study from 2006. The total number of casualties in 2020 has been estimated by adding the prognoses for the various subgroups. These first reference prognoses for the total number of fatalities and the total number of serious road injuries have next been revised for adjustments in road safety policy. Taken into account are the a number of ‘current measures’ that may be expected to have less or, rather, more effect on road safety and a number of ‘new measures’ in the SPV that are expected to have extra effect.
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