Results of this study are model-based analyses of transport demand effects of longer trucks in normal operation for different scenarios. In addition and based on the transport demand effects, resulting emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases have been gathered. This is based on empirical studies of the test runs and the derived and monitored logistical structures and patterns for longer trucks which have been gathered within this study and also in the baseline study (Röhling, Burg, Klaas-Wissing; 2014; FE 89.0273/2012). As a main result of the empirical analyses, current national intra-modal market potentials for longer trucks based on national statistical data of heavy good vehicles have been derived. To generate a permitted road network for longer trucks in different scenarios a likelihood approach has been used. Based on this road network the transport demand effects of longer trucks for the reference years 2014 and 2030 have been applied based on the data of the federal transport planning for 2030 of the federal ministry of transport. The overall model results indicated a general positive transport performance effect of longer trucks, concerning the reduction of driven truck kilometres and accordingly a reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. This positive effect is enhanced by a possible extension of the permitted road network for longer trucks upon the current status of the 6th regulation. The results also shows that that modal shift effects from rail and inland waterway transport to longer trucks are very small and negligible. But the results are showing also clearly that putting longer trucks in normal operation will not be the solely solution for reducing freight traffic growth and the associated environmental effects in the future. But it has been shown that in certain fields and market segments longer trucks do have positive economically and also traffic demand-side benefits. (Author/publisher)
Abstract