In response to the significant over-involvement of novice drivers in casualty crashes on Victoria’s roads, a new Graduated Licensing Scheme (GLS) was introduced in stages, the first key phase commencing 1 January 2007. The new program represented the culmination of consultation with experts, a comprehensive review of the literature and a detailed analysis of crash trends involving beginning drivers in Victoria. Importantly, a community consultation phase was conducted that gave rise to strong community support for the key components of the new GLS. Key elements of the new GLS include: 1. 1 July 2007 *A minimum 12 months learner permit and a minimum of 120 hours of on-road supervised driving experience as a learner for those aged under 21 yrs at the time of licensing. *A requirement to carry the learner permit when learning to drive. *A ban on using a mobile phone (hand-held or hands-free) when learning to drive. *New high-powered vehicle restrictions for probationary drivers. 2. 1 July 2008 *An increase of the probationary period from three to four years (P1 for one year and P2 for three years) for those aged under 21 yrs at the time of licensing. *A ban on any mobile phone use by P1 drivers. *P1 drivers are restricted from carrying more than one peer passenger (16 to 21 years). *A requirement for a good driving record to graduate between P1 and P2 and between P2 and a full licence. *Extension of zero blood alcohol concentration (BAC) requirement from three to four years to align with the P1 and P2 licence phases. *A new Drive Test to help identify those licence applicants who have met the 120 hour requirement and can demonstrate key safe driving capabilities for solo driving. *A range of support program measures to influence the desired behaviour change. From 1 January 2007, also introduced were tough drink-drive sanctions for young and probationary drivers. In order to measure the impact of the new GLS upon driver behaviour and safety on Victoria’s roads, an evaluation framework was established to both assess broad trends in road trauma as well as to understand the changes in behaviour linked to the new GLS that could help to explain those trends. Accordingly, two series of surveys were conducted with learner and probationary drivers under the old and new GLS in order to measure learner and probationary driver experience, exposure and driving behaviours. In parallel,an analysis of casualty crash data was conducted to identify key trends in serious road trauma involving novice drivers before, during and after introduction of the GLS. A set of interim results are provided below. The results are preliminary only and examine the crash involvements of drivers in their first year of probationary driving experience before and after the introduction of the GLS. The accompanying series of surveys is not yet complete and the timeframe in which casualty crash data is to be collected does not close until 2014, with analysis to follow. Key behavioural results from the learner driver surveys include: *The number of hours of supervised driving practice for 17 and 18 year olds (at the time of learner permit acquisition) has approximately doubled over the survey period while the corresponding trend for 16 year olds (at the time of learner permit acquisition) has been relatively stable at high levels (over 120 hours). This indicates learners have been generally following the new GLS rule. *The duration of the learner permit period in weeks has increased in each age level between 2000 and 2010. The Learner Permit holding period increased most noticeably with the introduction in 2007 of a new minimum holding period for a permit of 12 months (previously six months) for those aged less than 21 years at time of licensing. This result indicates the increased minimum period for holding a learner permit under the new GLS is working among these learners. *Less than 5% of learners used a mobile phone whilst learning to drive (either hand-held, hands-free or texting). This indicates learners were generally following the new GLS rule. *There has been a substantial increase in the proportion of learners recording their practice in the years since the introduction of the GLS; a high proportion use the official Learner Log Book (90% of learners in 2010). This indicates learners were generally following the new GLS rule. *The majority of learners always carried their learner permit during practice drives, indicating they were following the new GLS rule. Key behavioural results from the surveys of probationary drivers found: *Risky behaviours became more likely as experience increased, but post-GLS drivers did not engage in risky driving behaviours more often than the pre-GLS drivers. The only differences between the two groups were that hands-free phone use was less common for post-GLS drivers (consistent with the new rules about hands-free phone use) and SMS use and driving when tired were more common for post-GLS drivers. *Post-GLS drivers reported fewer traffic offences involving speeding, hand-held phone use and P plate use than pre-GLS drivers. The number of offences declined with increasing driving experience. *The post-GLS group reported a much higher amount of learner driver experience than the pre-GLS group (consistent with the new rule requiring 120 hours of driving experience) — a result that is broadly consistent with that derived from the more comprehensive learner driver surveys *Post-GLS drivers were much less likely to carry more than one peer-aged passenger in the first and second surveys. Analysis of available crash data has indicated that at this early stage the changes to the GLS have been accompanied by a significant reduction in the crash involvement of newly licensed probationary licence holders. It should be noted that the analysis has excluded data from the 2008/09 financial year which is characterised by a mix of first year drivers subject and not subject to the provisions of the new GLS and in order to mitigate the impact of increased numbers of licences in the lead up to and decreased numbers immediately post the introduction of the final phase of the GLS in July 2008. Key results include: *a significant reduction of 23% in the casualty crash involvement of drivers (aged 18-20 when first licensed) in the first year of holding a probationary licence when compared with a control group, equating to a saving of approximately 240 involvements per annum *a significant reduction of 31% in the fatal and serious injury crash involvement of drivers (aged 18-20 when first licensed) in the first year of holding a probationary licence when compared with a control group, equating to a saving of approximately 75 involvements per annum *a significant reduction of 16% in the casualty crash involvement of drivers (aged 18-20 when first licensed) in the first 9 months of the second year of holding a probationary licence, equating to a saving of approximately 75 involvements per annum *a non-significant reduction of 13% in the fatal and serious injury crash involvements of drivers (aged 18-20 when first licensed) in the first 9 months of their second year of a probationary licence *a significant reduction in the proportion of casualty crash involvements (57%) and fatal and serious injury crash involvements (58%) of target drivers (aged 18-20 years when first licensed) carrying two or more peer passengers in their first year of holding a probationary licence; these percentage reductions equate to approximate savings of 70 and 25 involvements respectively per annum. A range of tasks remain to be undertaken to complete a comprehensive evaluation of the impact of the GLS changes on crash involvement. A full evaluation is not possible until new drivers experience all aspects of the new scheme which includes an extended four year probationary period. Tasks include: *considering the impact of longer term steady state numbers of new licence applicants associated with introduction of the new scheme; this analysis is important given the increase in new licensees in the lead up to introduction of the new GLS and the reduction in numbers immediately following its introduction *further analysis of crash involvement once a substantial cohort of drivers licensed under the new GLS provisions have completed the probationary period and graduated to a full licence *accumulation of additional crash data so that the impact of the GLS on fatal crashes can be examined *investigation of the impact of the GLS on the crash involvement of learner permit holders and unlicensed novice drivers *collection of further survey data from probationary and learner drivers. In summary, introduction of the new GLS has been accompanied by promising outcomes in terms of self-reported changes in key behaviours and offence rates and in terms of reductions in casualty crash and serious casualty crash involvements. The full impact of the new GLS can only be determined once a cohort of young drivers have passed through the four years of the new probationary period and short-term changes in the numbers of new licensees moderate and return to a “steady state” condition. (Author/publisher)
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