AFTER REVIEWING EARLY RESEARCH ON TRAFFIC CONGESTION (WARDROP, SMEED, THOMPSON, VICKERY) AND EXAMINING LATER APPROACHES BASED ON STATIC MODELLING TECHNIQUES, THIS PAPER EXPLORES AN ALTERNATIVE WAY OF LOOKING AT THE PROBLEM, DERIVED FROM GENERAL SYSTEMS THEORY AND STATISTICAL MECHANICS. THIS IS DONE IN AN ATTEMPT TO PERSUADE POLICY MAKERS THAT URBAN TRAFFIC CONGESTION CANNOT BE TACKLED BY BUILDING MORE ROADS AND INCREASING ROAD CAPACITIES. THE MAIN THESIS OF THIS PAPER IS THAT A DYNAMIC STATISTICAL MODEL IS MORE APPROPRIATE THAN A STATIC, MICRO-DETERMINISTIC MODEL FOR THE STUDY OF URBAN TRANSPORT EQUILIBRIUM, AND THAT SEEKING FOR A BEHAVIOURALLY PLAUSIBLE INTERPRETATION OF MOGRIDGE'S HYPOTHESIS LEADS INEVITABLY IN THE DIRECTION OF DYNAMIC STATISTICAL EQUILIBRIUM. THE INTERPRETATION SUGGESTED IN THIS PAPER COULD NOT BE STATED WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE CLASSICAL TRANSPORT PLANNING MODEL BECAUSE THE CONCEPTS OF JOURNEY START TIME AND JOURNEY TIME VARIABILITY ENTER IN AN ESSENTIAL WAY INTO THE EQUIVALENT STARTING TIME INTERPRETATION.
Abstract