For the benefit of the scenario study The Netherlands 2040 Welfare and Living environment (WLO) a monograph on road safety is performed. The study is a continuation of an earlier forecasting study for the National Traffic and Transport Plan, which was being developed in 2003. In the current report the methodology, choices made and the results of the forecasting calculations are described. The calculations are included in a spreadsheet. The study included a number of steps. In the first phase a qualitative analysis was performed. Next the researchers looked at possible dilemmas, of which choices affect future developments in road safety. It was intended to quantify the views. Unfortunately the needed data were either not available or not detailed enough. The final forecasts had to be done ‘quick and dirty’. The forecasts are based on trend analysis of (corrected) historical accident data, population data, mobility data and results of model calculations. The forecasts fit within the WLO framework: the base year is 2000, the time horizon is 2040; the forecasts concern autonomous developments without policy changes. Casualty forecasts have been made for the four WLO scenario’s. The results show two extremes: in the Regional Communities scenario the numbers of traffic casualties in 2040 will be lower than in 2000; in the Global Economy scenario the results are less positive, particularly regarding fatalities. In this scenario the total number of seriously injured and killed will also be (slightly) less than in 2000. The most important factor improving road safety is the so called Learning Effect, that generally applies to our society. Individual road users, road authorities, vehicle manufacturers, the police etc. learn to deal with traffic in a more efficient and safe way. The autonomous downward trend in casualty reduction is not strong enough to achieve the national road victim targets. Additional measures will be needed to get the targets within reach. (Author/publisher)
Abstract