The expansion of Internet usage provides the potential to replace car journeys by `virtual shopping trips'. But this could bring many delivery vans to residential areas, while households use the time saved to make more leisure trips. This article examines the possible impacts of e-commerce on travel behaviour, and how e-commerce could be applied to deliver the maximum transport benefits. S Cairns is one of the few who have attempted to model the impacts. A British study estimated a reduction in shopping-related traffic of 10% by 2010, as compared with the central scenario in the National Road Traffic Forecasts. But a recent Dutch study estimated a 17% rise in van traffic in the Netherlands by 2005. Environmental economist P Hopkinson believes that nobody really knows what the impacts of e-commerce on travel patterns will be. He is jointly leading work on the e-commerce, transport, and distribution theme of the Digital Futures project, co-ordinated by Forum for the Future, which aims to explore the social and environmental impacts of e-commerce. A report by the Government's Retail E-Commerce Task Force presented four alternative scenarios from `sluggish' to `explosive'. The Freight Transport Association (FTA) advocates creating as wide as possible a `delivery window', during which customers can receive goods. British supermarkets have various approaches to e-commerce.
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