This paper examines the effects of 7 long-term socio-economic and demographic developments on the mobility growth in the Netherlands in the last 20 years. These developments are: (1) the baby boom generation is getting older; (2) the ageing of the population: the share of the elderly in relation to the total population increases; (3) economic growth; (4) the share of ethnic minorities increases; (5) individualisation; (6) increasing participation of the labour force of women (emancipation); and (7) time spent on leisure activities outside the home increases. The main conclusion is that the increasing share of the population aged 25-50 years old, emancipation, and economic growth, have had a dominant influence on the growth of car mobility. Due to the ageing of the population and satisfaction of private car ownership a more modest growth of private car use is expected for the future. After the year 2010 the growth of car mobility will decline further. The relationship between economic growth, private car ownership and private car use is expected to decline. (A)
Abstract