Several studies have modelled how road safety will be affected if car trips are replaced by bicycle trips (amongst others [28] [29] [30] [31]). These studies show that unambiguous conclusions cannot be drawn. Some studies found that such a mobility shift, if large enough, would positively affect the number of crashes between cyclists and motor vehicles [28]. After all, fewer car trips implies fewer possibilities of motor vehicles crashing with vulnerable road users. However, in countries where cycling is common, such as the Netherlands, relatively many single-bicycle crashes occur; crashes without involvement of cars or other vehicles (amongst others [5]). Studies that also take single-bicycle crashes into account arrive at less positive conclusions [29] [31]. Schepers and Heinen [29] for example, found that a shift in car mobility to bicycle mobility indeed hardly affected the number of road deaths, but did adversely affect the number of serious road injuries, caused in particular by an increase in the number of single-bicycle crashes. Stipdonk and Reurings [31] found a negative effect on the number of road deaths, and a larger negative effect on the number of serious injuries.
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