This paper describes the development of a method for quantifying rural travel demand suitable for application in developing countries. The methodology provides an approach to analysing household accessibility needs within a framework of a range of activities pursued by people in rural communities to support their livelihoods. The accessibility-activity-based model developed recognises the derived nature of travel, and considers the spatial, temporal, economic, cultural and social constraints faced by individuals. The model developed has a three-tier structure. The first tier performs village level analysis to determine household needs and the range of activities available. The second tier analyses household access needs and the resulting demand for activity-participation. The third tier analyses the activity-travel pattern of each individual member of the household. Probabilistic behavioural models are used to model activity choice by each individual and the resulting travel characteristics. Household data collected in a field survey of representative rural areas of Pakistan were used to develop the model form and determine the statistical significance of the model parameters. The types of activities analysed were work, education, market, health and leisure. The model developed was validated using a separate set of household data collected from other villages in Pakistan. A detailed analysis of the household data collected revealed the distinctive nature of the various activities considered and the role-allocation of activity-participation to the individual household members in Pakistan. Evidently, besides income levels and vehicle ownership, gender and household life-cycle-stage are the key determinants in activity choice and travel decision-making. The paper also includes a worked example to describe the application of the accessibility-activity-based model developed. For the covering abstract see ITRD E135448.
Samenvatting