This paper details findings of research to develop more advanced urban roundabout accident prediction models (APMs) that will enable more accurate evaluation of urban roundabout accident benefits. Accident prediction model forms and findings from studies in the United Kingdom, Australia, and NZ are briefly outlined. A considerable database has been collated including traffic movement volumes, geometric site characteristics, and accident data for 95 urban roundabouts throughout NZ. Advanced conflicting flow APMs have been developed to predict major vehicle accident types on urban roundabouts in NZ, in relation to traffic volumes and geometric variables. Less sophisticated product of link flow models were also developed for applications where turning traffic counts movement surveys are not available. In many cases the inclusion of geometric variables has been successful in improving the predictive accuracy of these equations. (Author/publisher) For the covering entry of this conference, please see ITRD abstract no. E213531.
Samenvatting