Adapting to change : some evidence from a simple learning model.

This paper outlines the use of the simple exponential smoothing model for estimating the influence of experience on the expectation of journey time and departure decision time. The author considers the value of the smoothing parameter `r' for different groups of respondents, in particular the distribution of the values of `r' given certain assumptions about the calculation of `r'. Also discussed are the set of assumptions needed for that calculation of `r' which minimises the measured error. Section 2 presents the experimental procedures used to collect the data. Section 3 discusses the available approaches to calculate `r' for each respondent. Section 4 presents detailed results and Section 5 presents conclusions.