This report is part 3 concerning the harmonisation of Questa factors and the Scenario Explorer 1.2. The Questa project is an activity of the Dutch Ministry of Transport and Public Works, and aims to develop a long-term view on developments in society and their impacts on the traffic and transport system. Four scenarios are evaluated for a time scale up to 2030: `Free State', `Unrestricted', `Polderland', and `Quality of Life'. The report describes a study in which transport figures are determined for the four Questa scenarios by using the Questa module and the Scenario Explorer 1.2. These transport figures are also compared with the most recent Central Planning Bureau (CPB) scenarios: `Divided Europe', `European Co-ordination', and `Global Competition'. The comparison shows that both set of scenarios foresee the same kind of developments, and that passenger transport demand and supply forecasts are more or less the same. Finally, special attention is given to the sensitivity within the Scenario Explorer for the feedback loop for supply of road infrastructure and demand for car use. It appeared that the model forecasts show, depending on the scenario, a 0% to 8% decrease in car use as a result of congestion and insufficient road supply. For abstracts of parts 1 and 2 see C 12560 (IRRD E201347) and C 12561 (IRRD E201348).
Samenvatting