In the first part of the presentation, ageing and transportation as a public health problem is discussed in general, paying attention to both safety and mobility aspects. The second part of the presentation focuses on older drivers and their risk of accident. A number of common methodological errors in risk estimation are discussed. The frailty effect affects the comparability of crash data between different driver groups. As to the exposure, all the different measurements currently in use have their limitations. Conclusions based on crash type distributions also are critically discussed, as well as the safety-inducing potential of general screening. In the third part of the presentation, a number of factors are discussed that may limit our ability to foresee the safety situation for a future where a much larger share of drivers on the roads are seniors. These include changes between cohorts, changes in gender distribution and possible time-related changes. Finally, some conclusions from a recent OECD report are presented. (Author/publisher)
Samenvatting