This paper outlines the future possible scenarios that the air transport sector may evolve into after 2010, starting from the most important trendsfrom the past and actual market developments. A big market shift was the liberalization which was introduced in the 1990Æs, which led to an improvedcapacity utilisation for both passengers and freight. The impacts on andreactions from airlines have been different over continents and over types of companies. Furthermore, increasing importance has been attached to yield, pushing airline companies towards various forms of co-operation and integration. In the future, some more developments may change the air transport market. First, we may expect a stronger split between traditional airtransport and niche markets. Second, privatisation may be strengthening, notonly among airlines, but also in airports. Third, mergers and acquisitions may drastically shift the market and lead to new competitive balances. Fourth, the Southwest model, based on low costs and low fares, is likelyto survive, although some maturity is observed, but new products emerge. Fifth, the relatively large number of bankruptcies is a new phenomenon forair transport. Carriers not belonging to strategic alliances turn out to be more likely victims. Sixth, increasing aggressiveness in company strategies and reactions is observed, including price cuts but also hostile takeover bids. Seventh, privatization is gaining pace, while on the other handgovernments will continue to be an important player, be it on a differentfront:as infrastructure providers, market regulators and environmental protectors. Eight, air freight is still a growing market, with an own network which is gradually developing, next to the passenger network. A ninth and lasttendency is the entry of more foreign and private equity capital, the latter of which may sometimes be at odds with the long-term strategiesof the sector.
Samenvatting