This paper proposes the application of a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM), in particular, a FCM based on fuzzy NPN (Negative, Positive, Neutral) logic as an analysis tool for impact assessment of transportation projects. Many of the social and environmental impact variables of transportation projects are difficult to express in objective quantitative terms. As a consequence, it is common for subjective impact assessment to be carried out by many experts (agents) who have (different backgrounds and expertise. In such circumstances, fuzzy set theory offers versatile methods for the representation and analysis of judgements since it can handle incomplete information and uncertain or imprecise data. A fuzzy cognitive map is a model that represents uncertain causal reasoning both in diagrammatic terms involving edges (causes) and nodes (concepts, variables) and in matrix terms. The main advantage of using a NPN Fuzzy Cognitive Map is that the paths of the impacts can be traced. As a result, the step (iteration) at which the maximum (positive and negative) impacts occur can be determined. A FCM also has an ability to combine judgements obtained from multiple experts. In this paper, basic concepts of a FCM will be presented together with a computer software implementation, which has been developed for an application to the analysis of the impacts of transportation projects. (A)
Samenvatting