The world is currently using up oil at somewhere between four and nine times the rate it is being discovered. The 'depletionists' (or peak theorists) maintain that a sudden downturn in oil output is imminent, resulting in sharp prices increases that will lead to economic and social turmoil. In contrast, the anti-depletionists (represented by international energy agencies, major producers and the oil companies) is that rather than having used half the world's oil reserves, we have used closer to one quarter and that the outlook to 2030 represents no cause for concern. Oil supplies, it is argued, will keep pace with demand, despite the forecast growth in countries such as China. Prices, which the antidepletionists argue signal an impending shortage of oil, have not shown a long-term upward trend. While there have been dramatic price rises in the past, these have reflected market control by OPEC countries rather then a gradually exhausting resource. This paper reviews the main areas of debate between the depletionists and antidepletionists, with particular emphasis on the policy implications of both approaches. (Author/publisher) For the covering entry of this conference, please see ITRD abstract no. E211825.
Samenvatting