Many European airports face capacity problems in the near future, and Amsterdam Airport is no exception. Runway capacity is not the main bottleneck, noise capacity is more problematic. Traffic growth and capacity problemslead to changes in flight frequency, and more generally the air network. In order to facilitate a rational decision making process concerning investment plans or possible policy measures it is essential to have an estimate of the welfare effects. In a study commissioned by the Dutch Ministry ofTransport, a strategic air transport demand/supply equilibrium model (ACCM-3) was used to explore potential future demand levels for different scenarios. The forecasts have been made for unconstrained and capacity constrained situations, in order to establish the effects on consumer value due to the expected air network developments and the possible policy measures. The methodology used to estimate the consumer value of the different effects is described and related to the model specification that was used. It is demonstrated that as frequency increases, price reductions and changes in network structure are likely to increase the consumer value over time, at least as long as there is ample capacity. But when capacity limits are reached, this effect is reversed. Which policy is most effective in limiting these negative effects is considered. Transport economic theory is used to explain the methodology, and examples of the practical work carried outfor the Amsterdam Airport case demonstrate results obtained. How the use of modern appraisal techniques has improved the decision making process concerning airport policy in the Netherlands is demonstrated. For the covering abstract see ITRD E145999
Samenvatting