Current transport policies in the Netherlands imply huge investments in transport networks and large amounts of money to cover operational costs of public transport. Most of the policy decisions are based on extensive quantitative analyses of the effectiveness and costs of alternative options.For the long-term strategic plans the so-called Dutch National Model (DNM) constitutes the main analytical tool to estimate the relevant impacts of alternative policies. The Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management wanted to have a thorough insight into the appropriateness of this transport model and its ability to provide accurate and reliable estimates of transport consequences. In order to guarantee an independent judgement of the model quality, an audit was performed by a consortium. This consisted of TNO-INRO in the Netherlands, and the Transport Research Laboratory (TRL) in the United Kingdom. The DNM has been developed with two aims: (1) to produce forecasts on the strategic transport networks; and (2) to make general estimates in changes of overall mobility at the national level. It is concluded that DNM has realised its objectives. In addition, it is sensitive to a large number of policy variables, and its basis is such that it has proved possible to address issues not foreseen at the outset of the development. (A)
Samenvatting