The purpose of this report is to highlight the potential implications for Main Roads of the introduction and wider use of Automated Vehicles (AVs) on Western Australian roads. It will inform Main Roads’ strategic decision-making process and position the organisation to appropriately respond to a potentially disruptive innovation, which could fundamentally change the transport landscape and society, and have profound implications for those agencies involved. As railways transformed the way we travelled in the 19th century, and the internal combustion engine or the motor car in the 20th, AVs will revolutionise transport in the 21 st century. The impacts of automation on the transport system will be far reaching and felt well in advance of the arrival of the fully ‘driverless car’. Convergence of Automated Vehicles and Connected Vehicles In the context of smart vehicles, there are two main areas in which rapid technological developments are occurring, defied as Automated Vehicles (AVs) and Connected Vehicles (CVs). AVs are vehicles where some aspects of a safety-critical control function such as steering, throttle control or braking occurs without direct driver input . They use on-board sensors, cameras, GPS and telecommunications to obtain and analyse information using complex computer algorithms, and respond appropriately by effectuating control in safety-critical situations. CVs are capable of communicating with each other (Vehicle-to-Vehicle or V2V), with roadside infrastructure, such as traffic control signals (Vehicle-to-Infrastructure or V2I and vice versa), or with other devices, such as mobile phones carried by road users (V2X). Cooperative Intelligent Transport Systems or C-ITS, mainly focus on V2V and V2I, using wireless communication to share real-time information about the road environment (such as potential incidents, threats and hazards) with an increased time horizon and awareness distance that is beyond both what in-vehicle technologies (radars or cameras) and the driver can visualise. In addition, CVs also include traveller information and navigation, infotainment, remote diagnostics, maintenance and software updates, and safety alerts and warnings. The developments in CVs and AVs are occurring largely independently, although convergence of the two areas will be required for full automation of vehicles. The main focus of this report is AVs. CVs are only covered to the extent required for AVs. C-ITS can be considered a subset of CVs. Substantial work has been undertaken internationally in this area, particularly in the regions of Europe, USA, Japan and South Korea. Japan has already begun deploying vehicles with basic C-ITS functionality, while the other regions are looking at deploying C-ITS between 2016 and 2020. With 85 percent of Australia’s new vehicles now imported, vehicles with C-ITS functionality can be expected in Australia within the same timeframe. Austroads has established a C-ITS Steering Committee and appointed a Project Director for the Austroads’ C-ITS Project. There is a significant body of work being undertaken through these channels to ensure an appropriate policy and regulatory framework is in place to enable successful deployment of C-ITS in both Australia and New Zealand. Likely timelines for Automated Vehicles Almost all major car manufacturers are working on Fully Automated Vehicles (FAVS). Some manufacturers are claiming their FAVs will be ready as early as 2020, however most are expected to be released into the market on the 2020-2030 timeframe. The adoption of most new technologies follows an S-curve, and it’s reasonable to assume that AVs will follow a similar trajectory. However, the rate of adoption depends on many factors. In the case of AVs, we expect these factors to be maturity of technology, resolution of human factor (human-machine interface) issues, regulatory framework, consumer acceptance, critical mass for network effects (connectivity) and production cycles. The Institution of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) believes that by 2025, 60 percent of the cars on the road will be internet connected. The increased dependence on CVs will increase consumers’ trust and reliance on automated systems. IEEE predicts that 75 percent of the cars on the road will be AVs by 2040. (Author/publisher)
Samenvatting