Pavement performance modeling is an important element in the proper management of pavement infrastructure. It incorporates various factors such as material properties, traffic loads and climate plus construction and maintenance schedules to predict performance and life-cycle costs such that the most effective pavement designs based on both technical and economic merits can be selected. This paper describes a methodology and case illustration for the calibration and validation of a mechanistic-empirical flexible pavement performance model. Mechanistic-empirical design methods combine theory based design such as calculated stresses, strains or deflections with empirical methods in which a measured response is related to structural thickness. The methodology can be used for updating models to current conditions. For example, since the original models in the case illustration were developed traffic conditions have dramatically changed. In addition, the original models were developed using a deterministic approach (single point value). However, a probabilistic approach was considered more realistic as it provides a mean and distribution of values and thus better represents actual conditions. As a result, the model described in the paper incorporates a reliability function. The case illustration in the paper also includes a validation procedure based on an expert matrix. Essentially, this represents a statistically based comparison between observed and (expert) expected values. (a)
Samenvatting