Choice model calibrated on current behaviour predicts public response to new policies.

The standard approach to predicting public response to possible changes in transportation policy is to describe the changed environmental conditions in a scenario and ask individuals what their choice would be. These stated intentions tend to mislead policy makers. Empirical research is presented in which a logic model that is calibrated using the attribute ratings of the alternatives under the new policy conditions described in the scenario in relation to current behaviour rather than stated intentions provides highly accurate predictions of the actual public reaction to new policies.