Predictive models for pavement quality are necessary for economical and efficient design and maintenance of road pavement structures. Prediction and monitoring of the structural condition are of special importance, because of the high costs related to construction and repair. Based on a literature survey, a number of predictive models for cracking and bearing capacity of asphalt pavements were compared. Conclusions are: (1) General models mostly don't give reliable predictions for single road sections, because of the large variability between sections. At the network level however, relatively simple dimensionless models (like the Dutch CROW models) give sufficiently accurate predictions for the average; and (2) FWD deflections are generally influenced more by seasonal influences and especially temperature variations (and spatial variability, in the case of inaccurate positioning), than by changes of the pavement bearing capacity. To register the latter, deflections should be measured at the same conditions both in the wheelpath and between the wheelpaths, and the results compared.
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