THE ARTICLE BY DR GLAISTER, ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED IN THE JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT ECONOMICS AND POLICY IN JANUARY 1985, WHERE THE EFFECTS OF ALLOWING MINIBUSES TO COMPETE WITH STANDARD BUSES IS MODELLED, IS COMMENTED UPON (FOR ABSTRACT OF PAPER SEE 285638). IT IS CLAIMED THAT THE PREDICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO SUFFER FROM THE DIFFICULTY IN FORECASTING THE OUTCOME OF FREE COMPETITION AND THAT ADJUSTMENTS IN FARES AND SERVICES ARE DETERMINED IN AN ARBITRARY FASHION. ALSO, THERE IS NO REASON WHY THE MARKET SHOULD NOT SETTLE DOWN AFTER DEREGULATION TO LOWER FARES AND HIGHER LOAD FACTORS AT A REDUCED FREQUENCY. ASSUMPTIONS ON POTENTIAL COST SAVINGS AND BENEFITS OF MINIBUSES SHOW THAT EITHER A CROSS-SUBSIDY COULD BE ENDED AND BIG BUSES COULD BE SUPERIOR IN OPERATION OR THE CROSS-SUBSIDY IS DESIRABLE SO MINIBUS ENTRY WOULD UNDERMINE IT AND SHOULD BE PREVENTED. IN GENERAL, THERE SEEMS TO BE NO BENEFITS TO PUBLIC TRANSPORT USERS OF MINIBUS ENTRY. IN REPLY DR GLAISTER STATES THAT THE SIMULATION STUDY WAS INTENDED ONLY TO EXPLORE AND ILLUSTRATE POINTS OF PRINCIPLE AND IS BOUND TO BE UNREALISTIC IN SOME RESPECTS. HOWEVER, MORE DATA WERE NOW AVAILABLE FROM A MUCH MORE DETAILED STUDY IN A PROVINCIAL CITY WITH LOWER PASSENGER FLOWS THAN THE ORIGINAL LONDON DATA. RESULTS SHOWED SIMILAR CONCLUSIONS TO THOSE OF THE ORIGINAL STUDY IN THAT THE VERY BIG BUS DID NOT COMPETE WITH THOSE HAVING 45 SEATS OR LESS.
Samenvatting