New Zealand embarked on a Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) programme with the establishment of 63 LTPP sites on the State Highway network during 2000. While earlier publications described the establishment of the programme, this paper presents the first outcomes from the calibration analysis. The cracking model, in particular the crack initiation model, is one of the most crucial models in the simulation of pavement deterioration. In addition, it contributes to many of the other pavement models such as roughness and rutting. A comprehensive process of statistical data analysis was carried out including a traditional calibration coefficient adjustment of the HDM-4 model, adjustment of all HDM-4 model coefficients based on maximum likelihood estimation, linear model regression and finally, logistic model development. The paper highlights the merits of the various calibration and model development techniques as well as providing the reader with a comparison of the model outcomes. This is done both in terms of their accuracy in predicting crack occurrence on a network and their applicability to networks outside of the development area. The paper is of value to all engineers involved with pavement management, deterioration model calibration and model development. (a) For the covering entry of this conference, please see ITRD abstract no. 0612AR242E.
Samenvatting