This Technology Assessment report describes some of the challenges to the adoption of Electric Vehicles and where the advanced safety technology, smart grid and infrastructure connectivity may play a complementary and supporting role. The report recognizes that the key technologies that may ensure electric vehicles’ further success in the marketplace are battery attribute improvements – improved energy densities, recharging times, and durability – that lower the cost and improve the range, efficiency and powertrain performance of the vehicle. Absent improvements in the battery, the approach the auto industry is likely to take is a transitional one, eschewing large-scale production of battery electric vehicles for hybrid-electric ones that can bridge the gap in range and performance between EVs and gasoline vehicles. Over the long term, new battery chemistries may improve range and performance of battery EVs to equal that of gasoline-powered light vehicles. In the meantime, the continued roll out of connected charging infrastructure may also improve the range and performance of all types of EVs. New Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) regulations may significantly improve the prospects of electric vehicles, and drive the “light-weighting” or downsizing of some vehicle categories to achieve fuel economy requirements over the long run. The light-weighting of vehicles may push automakers to incorporate more active safety, or collision avoidance features. Crash avoidance, particular communications-based Vehicle-to-Vehicle systems, may be important in building the consumer confidence in smaller, lighter weight electrified vehicles and motorcycles. Hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and battery electrics are conservatively estimated to reach a 5 percent national car park by 2030. Drastic increases in the price of gasoline resulting from oil shocks or major shifts in national energy and environmental policy, however, may push Electric Vehicles (EV) quickly beyond this small share. Should such critical changes occur, EVs will be poised to move beyond their current niche to gain wider scale acceptance and integration into transportation and energy infrastructure. This report speculates on the future impact of a vehicle electrification and the smart grid to the transportation sector in general, and specifically to a future Vehicle-to-Vehicle, Vehicle-to-Device, Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2X) core system relying on Dedicated Short Range Communications/Wireless Access for Vehicular Environments (WAVE) (http://www.itsa.org/industryforums/connectedvehicle), as contemplated in USDOT's Connected Vehicle R&D program. (Author/publisher)
Samenvatting