The purpose of this research was to consider a cost-benefit analysis framework for public policy development that takes account of the potentially distinctive costs and benefits of intelligent transport systems (ITS) projects. Since ITS projects involve new technology it is likely that some of the benefits are not identified and quantified by the current New Zealand transport project evaluation procedures contained in the Economic evaluation manual (EEM). The objective of this research was therefore to explore the range of common ITS project benefits and assess if they can be evaluated using the existing EEM procedures. To satisfy this objective, a methodology was developed to evaluate the value of the ITS project components where the EEM procedures do not satisfactorily capture ITS benefits. Such a methodology would enable a comparison of the non-monetised aspects with the monetised outputs of ITS projects. As part of this research we undertook an extensive review of New Zealand and overseas literature on a range of topics relevant to the evaluation of ITS projects. We focused on the methodologies used to evaluate ITS applications and the reported benefits of the various ITS functionalities. The literature search was conducted using the NZ Transport Agency (the Transport Agency) research reports database, international ITS databases (predominantly British, American and Australian) and AECOM international reports. The purpose of the literature review was to identify: • the types of benefits and costs, and the range of values associated with ITS projects in the multimodal road transport environment in New Zealand and overseas • the methodologies for assessing the benefits of ITS projects that have been developed, proposed or applied. There is a general agreement expressed in the published material that ITS can bring substantial benefits. Nevertheless one has to be aware of possible pitfalls or overstating the benefits. For instance when a significant number of drivers see a variable message sign (VMS) and react to it by selecting the same alternative route, this route can get congested and cause delays greater than the delay for vehicles remaining on the original route. At times evaluation can claim unsubstantiated benefits. For example the benefits to motorway traffic resulting from ramp metering may be offset by long delays from vehicles queueing on the ramps. There is also a potentially sensitive issue of the invasion of privacy. The route, the origin and destination of the motorist’s trip are proprietary information, but the audio recording along with the video image might belong to the domain of private information. The reported benefits of improved ability to make informed choices by travellers having access to advanced traveller information systems include up to 70% reduction in travel delay caused by incidents, up to 16% improvement in public transport travel time reliability, up to 20% travel time saving due to informative VMS messages, up to 40% reduction in the duration of incidents, and up to 50% reduction in secondary crashes at incident sites. Application of red-light cameras resulted in reductions of up to 60% violations and 50% of crashes. The review found many examples of literature providing information on the benefits of ITS both qualitative and quantitative. However, very little material was found on specific methodologies comparing the value of monetised user benefits from ITS elements, such as real-time information display at bus stops, with the monetised benefits from infrastructure improvements, such as travel time saving. The group of ITS functionalities which physically enhance the performance of the transport network can be adequately assessed by the procedures contained in the EEM. We have identified the following ITS applications which can be assessed using the manual: adaptive and advanced signal control and arterial management, ramp signalisation (metering), early detection and management of incidents, traffic signal pre-emption for buses, parking management systems, automatic vehicle location and computer aided dispatching, speed enforcement and red-light cameras. It should be noted that at times some assumptions have to be made to do these assessments, for instance the duration of the incident, or the amount of traffic that would divert to other routes. The second group of ITS functionalities does not physically alter the transport network but provides information to the traveller to help them to select the most appropriate route for their trip or the best time to start the trip or the most appropriate mode. There are a few aspects of traveller information that make the uptake/use of traveller information difficult to assess/evaluate using the EEM. The first is whether the traveller receives the information, the second is if they act on the received information, and the third is whether they derive the expected benefits. None of these can be easily assessed using the procedures contained in the EEM. The EEM notes there are various techniques that allow economic values to be assigned to benefits, e.g. willingness to pay, avoidance or mitigation costs and where benefits that do not have monetary values in the manual are likely to be significant, it may be desirable to undertake such an analysis. The manual states that where no monetary value is available, the benefits should be described and where possible quantified, and also reported as an input into the Transport Agency’s funding allocation process. Very little material on the topic of attaching monetised values to customer satisfaction arising from traveller information is evident in the international literature. Most of the studies reviewed revealed that evaluations have often focused on traveller satisfaction surveys, or the technology used to provide them. A commonly expressed opinion in the studies is that the evaluation of ITS projects is complicated by the presence of the unique variables. In addition the studies often state that ITS benefits such as user satisfaction and comfort, improved availability or quality of information are difficult to quantify, although the EEM does provide values for driver and passenger comfort in cars and on public transport and willingness to pay has been used to value real-time information. Nevertheless, we consider the case for the presence of unique variables associated with ITS benefits needs further research before it can be accepted. If one asks the question ‘why is the customer satisfied?’, one may find the benefits that contributed to the satisfaction are already counted, and hence user satisfaction would be double counting benefits. It needs to be proven that double counting will not occur. It is important that the evaluation of the technology concerned includes rigorous sensitivity testing and does not imply false precision to the estimated impacts. The ITS evaluation methodology must allow comparison of ITS projects with non-ITS projects. The EEM covers this adequately. A review of the international literature brought information about the benefits of the ITS applications as well as their potential drawbacks, and the methodologies used to assess the benefits of the aspects which cannot be quantified, such as provision of information to travellers and transport authorities. The literature review found many examples of literature providing information on the benefits of ITS both qualitative and quantitative. However, very little material was found on specific methodologies comparing the value of monetised user benefits from ITS elements, such as real-time information display at bus stops, with the monetised benefits from infrastructure improvements, such as travel time saving. A review of the EEM identified procedures that can be used in the evaluation of ITS applications. However, there are ITS aspects which cannot be satisfactorily assessed by the EEM procedures and further work into these areas is recommended. In conclusion, the international literature review and review of the EEM have confirmed there are major gaps in existing ITS evaluation methodologies and further work into these areas is recommended. Recommendations for further applied research on specific topics and work to fill this gap are given in the report. Furthermore, pure research is recommended to address the gap in the economic theory underpinning ITS benefits, for example, whether willingness to pay or willingness to accept is the appropriate methodology for assessing ITS benefits. (Author/publisher)
Samenvatting