The essence of the decrease in the number of road deaths; Developments in 2004 and 2005, and new prognoses for 2010 and 2020. During the last 15 to 20 years there was a 2.5% annual decrease in the number of road deaths. This decrease is attributed to all kinds of important, gradual improvements of road safety. In 2004 there was a sudden, sharp, extra drop in the number of road deaths compared to this downward trend. In 2005 there was a further decrease. Consequently, the number of road deaths in the 2004-2005 period was almost 20% lower than it would have been if the trend in the preceding years had continued. This analysis aims to describe and explain this strong decrease, and, with a view to a possible adjustment of the road safety targets, determine the consequences for the number of road deaths in 2010 and 2020. SWOV finds that the 2004-2005 decrease is so large that it cannot be coincidental. Something must have happened to explain the decrease. It is either a once-only decline with lasting effect (trend breach), or it is a temporary success. The analysis of the crash data shows that the decrease of the number of road deaths was not equally strong for each of the different crash types. The decrease is strongest for car occupants, moped riders, and delivery van occupants, for fatalities between the ages of 12 and 40, and on 50 km/h and 80 km/h roads (local and provincial roads). The decrease on intersections is somewhat larger than on road stretches. There was a stronger decrease on intersections in urban areas than on rural intersections. Another important finding is that the decrease is not equally large in all districts. Some districts show a large, strong decrease, but others do not. All districts showed either a sharp drop, or a gradual decline for many years. This means that progress has been made in all districts. The manner in which this was achieved, however, varies strongly between districts. Some districts even had both a gradual decline and a sharp drop. This indicates important differences that can serve as points of departure for possibilities for improvement. These can also differ between districts. In the search for explanations we investigated the influence of external factors (like demographic developments, mobility, weather) and road safety measures (legislation, infrastructure, enforcement/information), and their influence on traffic behaviour. Although several of these factors do show trends, we could only make a quantitative estimate for their contribution towards the sudden extra drop in the number of road deaths for four of them. These four factors – speed behaviour, alcohol consumption, moped use, and seatbelt use – can account for a third of the extra decrease. SWOV assumes that the extra decrease as a result of seatbelt use, alcohol consumption, and speed behaviour is not temporary, but will be of a permanent nature, provided that the efforts concerning enforcement and information maintain at least the same level. The extent to which the decrease among moped riders will last, depends on the developments concerning moped use. In the prognoses we consider the effect to be lasting, for the time being. It was not possible to find an explanatory development for two-thirds of the sharp decrease in 2004-2005. Yet, there were all kinds of developments that may have contributed to the extra decrease. Possibilities are the introduction of a demerit points system for novice drivers, infrastructural improvements, et cetera. However, the data needed to calculate the explanatory effect, was usually not available. Two-thirds of the decrease, therefore, cannot be attributed to permanent changes with absolute certainty. There is, however, no evidence that this decrease is of a temporary nature. We therefore used two scenario's: a pessimistic one in which this two-thirds decrease is of a temporary nature, and an optimistic scenario in which the entire decrease is permanent. Taking into account the large number of possible explanations which lacked data to make calculations on, SWOV considers the optimistic scenario to be plausible, as opposed to the pessimistic scenario. Prognoses for 2010 and 2020 have been calculated for both (and other conceivable) scenarios. All scenarios are based on an unchanged safety policy. First, the expected numbers of road deaths in 2010 en 2020 were estimated using three different extrapolation methods. Next, the numbers of fatalities were determined for the optimistic scenario as well as for the pessimistic scenario. In the optimistic scenario, the expected number of road deaths is between 680 and 810 in 2010, and between 470 and 630 in 2020, depending on the extrapolation method used. We conclude that a road safety target of 750 fatalities in 2020 is attainable. The maximum number of road deaths in 2020 can be 550. For these numbers it is conceivable that the intended policy (control of mobility growth and a strengthened risk decline) makes a sharper target for 2020 realistic. SWOV makes two recommendations: - Decide to make a further analysis of similarities and differences between regional developments, so that districts can help each other and improvements produce a maximum return. - Improve the availability of data that are related to road safety: infrastructural developments, intensities, speeds, accurate crash data, et cetera.
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