The influence of social and cultural factors on mobility and road safety; A peripheral exploration. This peripheral exploration of the influence of social and cultural factors is one of SWOV's first such explorations. This peripheral exploration focuses on social and cultural developments in the past as well as in the future. We examined the effects past developments had, and still have, on mobility (exposure), traffic behaviour and thus road safety. The same four questions are central in all SWOV's peripheral explorations. For the social and cultural sector these questions are: 1. Which past social and cultural developments, with a long-term future, can influence road safety's development? 2. Which socio-cultural policy is being currently followed and prepared that can influence road safety? 3. Which chances and threats do these developments have, together with current policy, on road safety in the long term? 4. How can we feed back the results of this exploration to the socio-cultural and the road safety policies? Our life styles, cultural values and norms determine to a large extent our choice of transport modes, the times we travel and our travel motives. Traffic and transport will increase, especially in urban areas, as a result of demographic developments, households becoming smaller, changes in commuting and the inflow of immigrants. The contribution of socio-demographic factors to the increase in car mobility is estimated to be large, viz. about 50%. The other contributory factors are wealth and car ownership (together about 25%), and the improvement in the infrastructure and developments in town and country planning (also together about 25%). This peripheral exploration devotes special attention to the aging of the population. Between 2005 and 2010 the first large group of baby boomers will retire (early), and this will continue until about 2030. This generation has a high car and driving licence possession of both men and women (driving licences approximately 90%). The number of journeys concerning health care, service and recreation is increasing. This applies to the elderly as well as those helping them. These journeys do not have to be made during rush hours. The greatest crash rate increase for the elderly is among those of 75 years old and older. Poor public transport stimulates the elderly to continue to drive their cars for longer than is safe. The use of special vehicle types such as the four-wheeled scooter and four-wheeled moped will also increase. The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis distinguishes especially two social factors that very much determine car mobility, now and in the future: individualization and intensification. Individualization leads, among other things, to a decrease in the number of members per family and more women working - two developments that stimulate mobility. Intensification can often mean combining tasks and activities. This leads to, among other things, what are known as journey chains (e.g. consecutive journeys from home, to day nursery, to work, to the shops). The car makes it possible to complete such a chain within a short period of time. In addition to individualization and intensification, there are also e.g. informalization, computerization and globalization that are important social factors. Informalization can lead to an increase in aggression and can have consequences for traffic enforcement. Computerization leads to developments such as teleworking and teleshopping that influence commuting, and electronic road section control can be important for mobility and road safety. Globalization will increase the tonnage of goods transported. Having carried out this peripheral exploration, knowledge has been gained about social processes and trends in relation to mobility and traffic crashes. In due time, when the results of other peripheral explorations are known, the picture will become more complete.
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