This paper investigates by means of a scenario analysis which conditions have to be fulfilled for a successful introduction of electric vehicles in the city of Amsterdam. Firstly, a short introduction to electric vehicles and the local policy is given. Next, four scenarios are constructed by means of the so-called `Spider model'. The four quadrants of the model represent policy concerns about (inter)national flanking policies, local economic developments, local spatial policies, and public transport policies, respectively. Four scenarios are constructed: `Prosperous Amsterdam', `Sustainable Amsterdam', `Pauperized Amsterdam', and `Lonely Amsterdam'. It is concluded that flanking policies at both the (inter)national and local level as well as a positive economic development are very important for a successful introduction and adoption of the electric vehicle. When these conditions are fulfilled, the electric vehicle may decisively contribute to the achievement of a more environmental friendly urban transport system. (A)
Samenvatting