This is part 1 of the final report on the Scenario Explorer version 1.2. The Scenario Explorer is a model for nation-wide travel demand and supply forecasting. The model combines scenario building, system dynamics, and strategic transport modelling techniques. The model facilitates experimentation with alternative policies and perceptions on causalities within the traffic and transportation system. It is based on the `modelling as learning' approach, and it is intended to stimulate experimentation in policy thinking and to get insight into future developments in travel demand and system behaviour at a strategic level. The approach chosen is hybrid in a methodological sense in that it can deal both with relationships that have been validated empirically and with subjective perceptions of the system of the analyst or policymaker. In part 1, a general description is given of the objectives, the set-up, and the operation of the Scenario Explorer. The main elements are treated, and the results of a series of validation tests are given. In addition, this part provides an example to show how the Scenario Explorer can be used. (A) For abstracts of parts 2-4 see C 14350-14352 (IRRD E201678-E201680).
Samenvatting