This study describes a specific work package (WP 5200) within the European FANTASIE (Forecasting and Assessment of New Technologies and Transport Systems and their Impacts on the Environment) project. This work package is solely dedicated to describing the context in which (possible) new technologies could function, and describes transport systems and transport demand for the next 35 years. An attempt is made to determine which transport concepts and systems could be used in the future. A demand assessment is made for all transport concepts. The forecasts are based on four possible future scenarios. Each of these is predicated upon two groups of variables: `economic dynamism': a society is either characterised by high or moderate economic growth; and the importance of `sustainability': a society either attempts to pursue an environmentally `sustainable' path, or does not. Demand forecasts are made using elements of both aggregate and disaggregate approaches. The use of vehicles and transport concepts is divided into passenger and freight transport. The study considers the likely technological developments for both transport types, and makes some first conclusions on the likelihood that certain market developments will take place. Another major element in the study is the identification of policy options which affords an opportunity to influence the developments themselves.
Samenvatting