This report presents the results from a survey of experts on the likely pattern of development for IVHS in North America. lt looks specifically at the range of systems or technologies that are currently recognized as contributing to the development of IVHS; and for each system or technology, it forecasts the likely market penetration for relevant segments of the market. The survey addresses the full range of IVHS as depicted in the table on the next page. The report looks at the 30 systems listed in the table and offers separate market projections for luxury sedans and sports coupes, commercial vehicles, public fleets, freight carriers, and toll authorities, where appropriate. The survey also assesses the expected capitalized cost, including installation and subscription fees, to the vehicle owner. The respondents to the survey were from North America, Europe and Japan and are recognized experts in the systems or markets that they addressed. They were asked to limit their forecasts to those systems that they felt qualified to evaluate. The survey followed the Delphi approach where the respondents are anonymous and where the estimates of market penetration are summarized statistically and fed back to the panel for revision in light of the group estimates. This most recent market forecast should provide improved estimates of market penetration over Delphi I. Some of the systems are more likely to be developed in the early stages of IVHS than others. Some of the ones to watch for early deployments are: a) Radio-based inforrnation systems (pg. 10); b) MAYDAY (pg. 10); c) Autonomous navigation (pg. 14); d) Satellite navigation (pg. 14); e) Frontal and back-up collision warning (pg. 16); f) Adaptive cruise control (pg. 18); g) Automatic braking (pg. 18); and h) Automatic toll collection (pg. 20).
Samenvatting