This paper presents some further results of the authors' recent research into the impact on travel behaviour of the withdrawal of free or reduced-fare travel concessions for elderly and child passholders. The following issues are addressed: (1) the effect of changes in the level of fares charged, in schemes that do not offer free travel; and (2) the development of travel behaviour over time, following the withdrawal of free travel, if fares remain unchanged. Three different hypotheses are considered about the effects of introducing a fare, or fare increase. The choice between these hypotheses has considerable significance for level of repayment to operators, and the resulting requirements for cash from local requirements for cash from local authorities. Several predictions are made about the consequences of the hypotheses. An attempt has been made to monitor trends, following the initial impact of a withdrawal of free or other travel concessions. Several reasons are given for the past growth and current decline of concessionary travel. Some implications for reimbursement are explored. An appendix outlines the authors' theoretical framework for estimating generated level of travel by public transport.
Samenvatting