This paper is related to the choice of alternative types of public transport modes and its incidence in the Madrid Metropolitan Area. When planning transport facilities, two conditions are needed: efficient estimation of the users' response to changes in prices and in the characteristics of the services; and reliable predictions of demand. These two conditions are the main objectives of this paper. Given a monthly database, the authors address the first objective using a causal econometric model. As a baseline for forecasting comparisons, they also use new variants of univariate unobserved components models. Forecasting evaluation is based on a variety of accuracy measures to avoid misleading conclusions. (Author/publisher).
Samenvatting