The paper sets out a general framework for analysing the demand for major infrastructure additions, developed by the authors in a series of studies of infrastructure proposals. These studies have variously aimed at assessing the viability of the infrastructure itself, predicting its consequences for competing operators, optimising pricing and other aspects of the service provided by the infrastructure and advising management on the scope and appropriate direction for marketing activity. The constructions studied have been located in and between several European countries and wider afield. In this context, the appropriate methods for forecasting the decisions that will be made by travellers, shippers and others affected need to take account of the difficulties of observing demand with respect to travel alternatives that do not yet exist and of taking account of the substantial adaptations that households of companies may make when the infrastructure is opened. The "barrier" effect of international frontiers cannot be ignored, nor can various types of "generation" effects when new types of trips come into existence in response to new travel opportunities. A further important issue is how one should deal with the uncertainty inherent in forecast results. The paper recommends a comprehensive approach that combines state-of-the-art market research and transport planning methods to allow these policy issues to be addressed. (A)
Samenvatting