In 2001, DoTARS commissioned a scoping study of Very High Speed Train (VHST) for the Brisbane-Melbourne corridor. A base market size and VHST model were developed that enable patronage passenger kilometres user benefit and impacts on 'donor modes' to be forecast under a wide range of scenarios. The model tailored to east coast conditions was then compared with a 'benchmarking' model developed from overseas experience in Europe and Japan. Three VHST technology options involving new track and rolling stock were forecast and compared against current technology. Four corridor sectors were evaluated. Business, non-business and metropolitan (mainly commuting) trips were forecast. The size of each market was projected according to population, employment and income growth with two socio-economic scenarios. A diversion model compared VHST with other modes. Induced demand was also forecast and ramp-up allowed for. The demand model tailored to the east coast was less sensitive to travel time than the 'benchmarking' model. Lower forecasts at short distances are forecast and higher forecasts at long distances. (Author/publisher) For the covering entry of this conference, please see ITRD abstract no. E211825.
Samenvatting